It still remain fresh to our mind the worst period of rupiahs weakening months ago, it's even touching near to Rp 15.000 per dollar. Most economy analysts at that time claimed it as the worst since the reformation era, the capsize of soeharto regime in history of the state.
Since the era of democration has appealed, there has been not much massive progress in term of economy indicated by infrastructure, competitiveness, autonomy. The country still lean on much on the rich country like USA to lend the money for yearly budget.
Now, the dramatic political history of incumbent president jokowi of which people commonly predicting him as hero to bring the economy for better still facing the similar challenge at least in his 2 years presidency. Since the very beginning of his reign, jokowi face the turbulence of currency crisis by which rupiah touched the lowest level in history. People started to doubt his ability yet a sudden restoration to bring back rupiahs rate to rp 13.000 even got the kudos from USA president, barack obama. It was seemingly a magic, people relied much on the super capability of jokowi almost like flipping the hand. The government then claimed that it was the success of 4 economy policy package to restore the weakening rupiahs.
Through the formal report of first quarter economy growth, there is a red note that government even failed to equate the consensus of economy growth 5.1%. They only reached 4.92% still too far from the main ambition to reach the growth of 8% by the end of jokowi's reign.Jokowi blamed on his helper,minister of failing to absorb the budget effectively resulting to the embarrassing mark of economy growth rate. This is admittedly a failure nevertheless, the government surely in serious commitment of working through the breakthroughs and infrastructure established massively.
The slowdown of economy basically the global issue and the entire world is grappling for restoration. Mostly it is influenced by the AS economy which seeks to recover from crisis. It's the rising of interest rate, the main issue that becomes the focus of global economy. The USA economy that signal to slowly restored to stable is mostly heading to the decision of USA government to rise the fed interest rate. This is a good news for global economy including indonesia that relies much on it. This global economy dynamic also contributes to the slowdown and uncertainty of economy of the state.
Lately, market indicators show the sluggish tendency. Rupiah seems to be in a hint of disaster after being recovered from previous weakening. Market indicator like IHSG also sags to worse level after in previous months touching the high level. Even the big impact of global economy crisis alerts on the banks. In first quarter, all the banks reported the high non performing loans,the rising of debitor capable to pay for the credits. On the other hand, the tax income in spite of the tax amnesty policy failed to boost the increasing revenue. Thus even to sustain the running programs, government has to borrow the money which is basically a dilemma budget strategy of government.
It seems the issue of slow down economy will be in long term. It is because of some global issues like the issue of the release of the United Kingdom from the European Union even more rampant. This term is more commonly known by the term "BREXIT" which owns the stands of British Exit. Such issues like it or not affect the movement of the economy. David Cameron, the British Prime Minister, in his campaign at the election had expressed their referendum to determine the status of the country's alliances in Europe. Some experts of the country also agrees that Britain is considered not get much benefit from fellowship do. This referendum will take place on June 23.
Prolonged economic slowdown further exacerbate the situation. Especially slowing developing countries that are considered as a driver of the economy, such as China and India. The implication, economic growth projections RI repeatedly circumcised and even make the country risks are higher than ever. In the financial sector, the economic slowdown makes the status of national banks started to alert. The ratio of non-performing loans appears to be rising. The risk of default are now haunting.
Government is definitely in dilemma to boost the economy growth between the efficient programs for inclusive economy growth and the option to add the debt. Is jokowi worth to be blamed? definitely not, unless the issue is used for political means. What about optimism for global economy?
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